The Phillips starting gate is an automobile mounted with horizontal bars on either side, which permits the horses to start while in gait. Generally, the pacing or trotting horses begin their movement about ¼ of a mile before the starting line. Before reaching the start, each horse generally has his head up, nose to the gate and is pacing or trotting on stride. The starting gate is about 30 feet wide; hence the horse in the number 8 post position is starting approximately 30 feet further out from the rail than the horse in the one position.

A harness race generally consists of eight contenders. In stake and invitation races as many as 10 or 12 may start. In this case, horses number 1 through number 8 start in their normal positions. Horses 9 through 12 begin on the second tier, which means number 9 starts behind number 1; number 10 behind number 2; number 11 behind number 3; number 12 behind number 4, and so on.

As we have stated in the theme of this book, the post posi­tion counts about a third in your handicapping calculations. This may seem to place an undue weight on as simple a mechanical factor as that of the starting of a race. But this is far from the truth. Depending on how a particular horse runs, post position can either enable him to win or lose a particular race.

If we return to the physical aspects of the problem, let us remember that a ½, mile harness track is oval in shape, having four turns in its perimeter. The starting point at most tracks is about two-thirds of the way down the stretch. Hence, after the start is made the horses have only a few hundred feet in which to jockey for position prior to arriving at the first turn. If you are at all familiar with harness racing, then you will be aware of the difficulties involved if a horse is outside on a turn. Most drivers prefer to go into a turn running on the rail, and to do their positioning on the straightaway.

We should be aware of the fact that the number 1 post position is favored by being on the rail, and running from it presents little chance of a horse being "caught" on the outside or in a poor position. The number 2 position is second best, the number three, third best and so on.

Up to this point we have been mechanical in our outlook. There are very definite reasons for this. The shortest route around a fenced-in circle is closest to that fence. For each yard you move away from that fence you correspondingly lengthen the path you must cover. This explains only a part of the problem. Pacers move at about 30 miles per hour. At this rate of speed, centrifugal force takes over on the turns to a point where it is almost impossible for a horse running outside at a faster rate to overtake a horse running on the inside at a slower rate.

A horse running on the outside tends to run farther out­side, as explained above. To counteract this, the driver must attempt to pull the horse towards the rail. This has the effect of slowing him down, and pulling his head towards the left. If forced to go for the lead from the outside, it is possible that the horse in question will "break" stride. If held back, he may lose his position. From any viewpoint, running out­side has marked disadvantages. Any position further back than the 4 post will require considerable outside maneuvering. Hence, be wary of a position which will cause your choice to run a distance on the outside.

The importance of post position cannot be overrated. This can be shown statistically. In a compilation of the two major New York tracks over 1957, 1958 and 1959, the percentage of wins for each post position can be shown as follows:

The table shown above represents approximately 5900 races. The frequency distribution shows these startling facts:

1. Your chances of winning when betting on horses run­ning from the 1 post is three times better than from the number 8 (19% vs. 6%).
   
   
2. Likewise, a horse's statistical chances from the number 2 post position are twice as good as from the number 7 post position.
   
   
3. The percentage of wins in the first four post positions (1, 2, 3 and 4) represent 64% of total wins. This means that two out of three wins registered, are from the first four post positions and only one out of three are from the second four post positions (5, 6, 7, 8).
   
   
4. The frequency of wins becomes more pronounced when one looks at the first five post positions (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) con­trasted with the last three (6, 7, 8). We find that 75% of the wins occur in the first five post positions. This means that one gives himself a statistical chance of three out of four if he confines his wagers to the first five post positions over the long term.
   

When one uses statistics of this type he must bear in mind that they will prove themselves only over the long term. On a specific day or in a specific week unusual variations can result. But these statistics have not been presented with any daily or weekly system application in mind. If you remember, we have stated that "handicapping is an attempt to lessen risks until profitable wagers are the result." Using this concept, anything that we can do to increase our chances, and consequently lessen our risks, should be put into force.

It should be apparent that not only do the outside post positions appear to influence the race but over the long run demonstrate this tendency through statistical analysis. In­dividual horses can and do overcome this disadvantage. Many horses continually show that they can win from out­side positions. This, however, has little bearing on the prob­lem. The facts are quite clear, and the conclusions can be supported. I would make a definite suggestion concerning horses running from the 6, 7, or 8 post positions, and that is, be wary of wagering on these horses. Attempt to confine your bets to horses running from posts 1 to 5. There will be exceptions to this, but if followed, this rule will greatly improve your chances over the long run.

On sloppy, muddy, slow, or good tracks, the mere fact of being caught outside on a turn can decide a race. The sulky can slip or slide, and the footing is very dangerous. Hence, an outside post position or an "off" track can spell much dif­ficulty to the driver and the horse. The number 1, 2, and 3 posts become increasingly better on "off" tracks because the necessity of running two or three abreast is lessened consider­ably.

The reader may ask as to whether there is a mechanical value which can be placed on the advantage of one post posi­tion over another? The answer has to be no! You must familiarize yourself with the difficulties inherent in the vari­ous post positions and begin from there. Remember that our statistical analysis has not been shown in order to give a mathematical weight to the problem, but rather as informa­tion to help in our overall calculations.

If you wish to think of post position differentials in terms of time and speed, then apply this rule of thumb: A horse from the 8 post position running on the outside all the way and winning over a horse running from the 1 post, would have to be moving at a faster rate—about three seconds' difference. This is strictly a rule of thumb, but it dramatically shows the differentials which are inherent here.

Another factor which makes an outside post distasteful is the fact that often a different plan of running the race is forced upon a driver. It is safe to assume that most drivers have a general idea as to how they will ask their horse to run a particular race. They know the contenders and plan ac­cordingly. A driver may try to lead all the way, come from behind, or wait for an opening. Now let us assume that the same driver is running from an outside post position and is caught outside on the first turn. Does he try to go for the lead? Does he drop back? Does he run outside? You can see how important a post position can become at that instant.

Most trainers say that a good horse has "one move" and a very good horse has "two moves/' By this is meant that a horse can make one important effort during a race. In the case of a stretch runner this "move" is in the stretch. In the case of a front runner this "move" may be either in getting or holding the lead. Let us assume that a front runner from the 6 post position rushes up and takes the lead at the quar­ter, passing the front horses. Then two other horses challenge and take the lead. According to the "move" theory, the num­ber 6 horse should be finished as he fought to get and hold the lead. Let us now assume that this same horse runs a week later from the number 1 post position. He now can get the lead easily and his "move" may be in holding the lead, which he can do, and he therefore wins.

If then we use the "move" theory as explained above we can see again why the post position becomes so important. We can also see how post position meshes in with "how the race will be run" to such a degree as to make post position consideration extremely important in our handicapping of a particular race!

If we follow the "move" theory as explained above, we can see once more why the post position becomes so im­portant. We can begin to realize how post position so vitally affects "how the race will be run." Post position considera­tion is worth at least ⅓ towards determining the winning horse. In conclusion, if we can find the horse who figures to win because of the way in which the race is situated, has a good or excellent driver, and has a beneficial post position, then we have a good wager.

The above methodology added to your own judgment, pro­viding that you are aware of "Cautions on Betting" (Chapter Eight), should produce winners.

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